Base case for “methane event” is some relatively rapid transition, over a number of years, perhaps a few decades, to a new equilibrium state: Hot House Earth or what I jokingly call “Florida Man World” … warmer, and permanent ice mostly goes away … ironically, Florida is submerged under water in “Florida Man World”.
The COTUS is the JOKE … the Bill of Rights was the punchline.
You can print money, you can’t print resources or work.
Worst case for “methane event” is VENUS SYNDROME, and this is as bad as it sounds. And it could happen rapidly.
Unlikely cases: double catastrophe syndrome, whereby geo-engineering (which has been ongoing) suddenly STOPS or STOPS WORKING (more likely). this process has artificially stored additional thermal energy in the Earth’s oceans. Water can store thousands of more times the thermal energy than water, and this is good and bad – it’s like a thermal capacitor, and one way it “discharges” is with weather, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. But what if you over-charge the capacitor and prevent it from releasing? This would mean a massive evaporative event or what I call the “Great Swamp Cooler”. And this might, eventually, settle on “Florida Man World” or “Hot House Earth”, but during the transition there could be a cold/wet period. Perhaps even a little ice age. Imagine if 15-20% of the mass of water in the Earth’s oceans was released, as vapor, over just a few months?
Worst case for “swamp cooler” rapid evaporative event? – snow ball earth … or, extremely long ice age … it might be very unlikely, but I guess we might find out soon.
Hot House Earth or Swamp Cooler might begin as massive, almost never ending, rain storms – with extreme weather events. But with Hot House Earth, the new equilibrium is reached, in a few decades, and the weather “normalizes”. With swamp cooler, you start with a rain storm as well … but this quickly becomes snow in many places … and this could lead to, as stated, a little ice age.